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The CIA Watching Peak Oil Situation

The news is out that the CIA is watching the peak oil situation and has been for decades. This has met with much excitement, but I am not entirely sure why.

Oil Fields

The big scuttlebutt about the CIA being a believer in peak oil is being treated as a big news event, but one has to wonder why this is? The CIA is charged with collecting and acting on information in the international arena that impacts the United States. Well, what is more important than oil supplies around the world? I would be surprised if the CIA was NOT looking into and monitoring the oil situation.

So, what do we know about the CIA’s efforts? Not a lot, which should be no surprise. Generally, the Agency has put together studies considering when peak oil will occur and the impact that will happen when it does. The results are very interesting from what we can tell.

In the late 1970s, the Agency had an analyst named Richard Nehring take a flier on predicting when peak would happen. He suggested 60 to 100 years, which would mean 2040 to 2080. He made a lot of assumptions to come up with the figure, which most predictors in this field do as well. The key ones by Nehring were that we would continue to find elephant fields from time to time. This has proved to be wrong for the most part, which seems to suggest that the date of peak would be much sooner.

CIA Impact

So, what impact does the news the CIA is interested in peak oil have on the big picture? Pretty much none. About the only thing one can suggest is that it adds further credibility to the fact that peak oil is a real concern, not a loony conspiracy theory.

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