The CIA Watching Peak Oil Situation
The news is out that the CIA is watching the peak oil situation and has been for decades. This has met with much
excitement, but I am not entirely sure why.
The big scuttlebutt about the CIA being a believer in peak oil is being treated as a big news event, but one has
to wonder why this is? The CIA is charged with collecting and acting on information in the international arena that
impacts the United States. Well, what is more important than oil supplies around the world? I would be surprised if
the CIA was NOT looking into and monitoring the oil situation.
So, what do we know about the CIA’s efforts? Not a lot, which should be no surprise. Generally, the Agency has
put together studies considering when peak oil will occur and the impact that will happen when it does. The results
are very interesting from what we can tell.
In the late 1970s, the Agency had an analyst named Richard Nehring take a flier on predicting when peak would
happen. He suggested 60 to 100 years, which would mean 2040 to 2080. He made a lot of assumptions to come up with
the figure, which most predictors in this field do as well. The key ones by Nehring were that we would continue to
find elephant fields from time to time. This has proved to be wrong for the most part, which seems to suggest that
the date of peak would be much sooner.
So, what impact does the news the CIA is interested in peak oil have on the big picture? Pretty much none. About
the only thing one can suggest is that it adds further credibility to the fact that peak oil is a real concern, not
a loony conspiracy theory.
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